This is the third installment of a three-part series on the development of the Oregon Energy Strategy (OES) from April 2024 through September 2025. You can find the first installment, Oregon Energy Strategy: Energy Pathways Analysis, here and the second installment, Oregon Energy Strategy: Complementary Analyses, here.
This blog gives an overview of the jobs study produced for the Oregon Energy Strategy technical analysis, focusing on the high-level methodology and key takeaways. View the August 14, 2025 Jobs Analysis Presentation for more detail.
CETI partnered with Phil Jordan, Mitch Schirch, and Sophia Chryssanthancopoulos of BW Research (BWR) for this analysis, which estimates employment impacts across Oregon’s energy sectors: Electricity, Fuels, Buildings, and Transportation. BWR is a national leader in economic modeling and produces the United States Energy and Employment Report (USEER) every year for the U.S. Department of Energy. CETI worked with BWR previously to produce the Net-Zero Northwest-Workforce analysis.
BWR uses input-output modeling to generate employment estimates based on investments in the economy over time. In this case, BWR used energy and investment data from the energy modeling led by Evolved Energy Research to estimate impacts to Oregon’s energy employment. BWR modeled impacts from the energy modeling Reference Scenario, a least-cost pathway that incorporated high levels of both energy efficiency and end-use electrification, and alternative modeled scenarios that changed assumptions from the Reference Scenario to examine key questions.
The jobs modeling produced employment for each sector by industry group, detailed occupation, wage tier, and region (East/West Oregon) for 2024 and every five-year increment from 2030-2050. The modeling estimated direct, indirect, and induced employment effects. Direct jobs are those associated with the initial economic activity of a given investment or activity, and indirect jobs are those associated with the supply chain connected to that initial economic activity. Induced jobs refer to employment based on the additional household spending resulting from the direct and indirect employment generated.
The jobs figures presented in this analysis can inform workforce development strategies by identifying required educational programs, training, or certifications to support growing sectors. Uncertainty exists in any model, and these jobs estimates are directional to give a sense of scale of future energy employment demand in Oregon. As with the energy modeling, the jobs modeling provides information to consider the broader effects of different choices and priorities for Oregon’s energy system.
The jobs modeling found that Oregon stands to gain energy jobs under the Reference Scenario and all six modeled alternative scenarios:
It is important to note that the jobs modeling shows the future of demand for employment spurred by investments in Oregon’s energy economy but does not address any current workforce limitations. The magnitude of employment demand indicates the need for workforce planning to avoid labor shortages and bottlenecks that could create barriers to achieving the new electric generating potential, efficiency, and electrification upgrades indicated in the energy modeling.
Electricity sector jobs supporting transmission, distribution, and additional electric capacity drive these job increases, while the Transportation sector experiences the largest job displacement. In line with CETI’s Net-Zero Northwest-Workforce findings, Transportation jobs decrease in fueling stations and vehicle maintenance as vehicles shift from gasoline-powered, internal combustion engines to electric vehicles.
In terms of specific occupations, electricians see the largest occupational demand in 2035 with nearly 2,000 net new jobs from 2024, representing an 82% growth over current energy sector electrician employment. Most of these electricians are in the Electricity sector, with additional jobs in the Buildings and Transportation sectors. Other occupations with significant demand in 2035 include construction laborers as well as heating, air conditioning, and refrigeration mechanics and installers.
BWR also modeled the regional distribution of jobs in East and West Oregon, based on geography defined in the energy modeling. The analysis found that energy employment under the Reference Scenario in East Oregon grows 33% by 2035 and 75% by 2050, with developments in renewable electricity generation and transmission responsible for most of this growth. In West Oregon, total employment under the Reference Scenario grows more modestly—by 5% by 2035 and 7% by 2050—driven by growth in the Electricity and Buildings sectors and offset by job displacement in the Transportation sector.
Overall, while the modeling shows that Oregon would gain energy jobs under all modeled scenarios, the employment impacts are not equally distributed. The significant scale of renewable electricity generating capacity in East Oregon would require high levels of construction and development. Additionally, some subsectors, such as fossil fuels and conventional fueling stations, would see employment displacement.
Additional research is needed beyond the projected job estimates in this report. Next steps for ODOE could include a comprehensive workforce analysis to assess implications of meeting Oregon’s future energy needs. The goal of such an exercise would be to identify gaps in current and estimated occupation-level employment and inform strategies to support and expand workforce development efforts to promote a just transition. Examples of this type of analysis include the Massachusetts Clean Energy Workforce Needs Assessment and Washington State Residential Energy Workforce Gap Analysis.
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