Energy employment in Idaho, Montana, Oregon, and Washington is projected to grow by nearly 63,000 jobs (17%) in the electricity, fuels, buildings, and transportation sectors between now and 2030 should the region get on the path to achieving net-zero emissions by 2050, according to the Clean Energy Transition Institute (CETI)’s Net-Zero Northwest (NZNW) Workforce State Analysis. All four Northwest states experience net energy job growth by 2030 as depicted in Figure 1 below:
Idaho experiences 22% growth in energy employment, with net job growth in all four energy sectors:
Montana sees 39% growth in energy employment, with net job growth in three of the four energy sectors:
Oregon achieves 12% growth in energy employment, with net job growth in two of the four sectors:
Washington realizes 14% growth in energy employment with, net job growth in all four energy sectors:
The NZNW Energy Pathways analysis, which CETI released in June 2023, provided data for the workforce analysis. BW Research Partnership performed both the initial NZNW Workforce Regional Analysis that CETI shared in November 2023 and this State Analysis. (See our December webinar for details on the regional workforce data.)
The NZNW Workforce State Analysis examines the jobs that might be created or displaced in each of the four Northwest states if the region were on the path to achieving net-zero emissions by subsector, industry, occupation, and wage tier in four key energy sectors: electricity, fuels, buildings, and transportation.
Using clean electricity to decarbonize as many sectors as possible is key to a low-carbon future, hence this analysis shows the Northwest’s Electricity sector experiences the highest percentage growth by 2030 and through 2050, with job growth supporting new renewable capacity outpacing job losses from declining fossil fuel generation subsectors across the region. Figure 2 shows the Electricity sector job breakdown by state.
While all states experience net employment growth in the Electricity sector, Montana’s workforce has the most dramatic increase, more than doubling to add nearly 11,000 jobs by 2030 because Montana’s high-capacity factor wind is a valuable renewable resource, according to the NZNW Energy Pathways. Most of these jobs support the growing Land-Based Wind, Distribution, and Transmission subsectors.
Idaho’s Electricity sector also sees considerable growth of 81% (over 8,500 jobs) to support new renewable electricity generation capacity (mostly Land-Based Wind and Nuclear) and related Transmission and Distribution activities. In Oregon, jobs supporting Electricity generation from fossil fuels decline while renewable capacity (both Land-based and Offshore Wind, as well as Solar) and related Transmission and Distribution activities increase, leading to overall 40% growth for the sector.
Washington, which starts with a larger Electricity sector workforce in the study’s baseline year than any other Northwest state, also sees substantial net job growth of 24% by 2030, with the largest gains in Distribution, Nuclear, and Transmission jobs.
The NZNW Energy Pathways-Clean Fuels analysis found the combination of the Northwest’s relatively clean electricity grid and stringent emissions targets drives early clean fuels development in the region (largely hydrogen and hydrogen-derived clean fuels called Fischer-Tropsch liquids). Unlike in many parts of the country, projected job growth in clean fuel subsectors (Hydrogen Fuels and Biofuels) outpaces losses in fossil fuel subsectors by 2030 in Idaho, Montana, and Washington (Figure 3).
In Montana, job growth in Hydrogen Fuels and Biofuels exceeds displacement from fossil fuel subsectors, resulting in a net employment increase in the state’s Fuels sector in all years included in this analysis.
While this analysis finds most production of hydrogen and hydrogen-derived fuels occurring in Montana due to the state’s high-quality wind resources (used to power electrolysis for hydrogen production), Idaho and Washington also experience job growth to develop an early Northwest clean fuels industry. Idaho adds over 1,300 Hydrogen Fuels jobs by 2030, primarily working in the installation and repair of new hydrogen fuel production facilities. In Washington, there is growth in both Hydrogen Fuels and Biofuels (which includes Fischer-Tropsch liquids) subsectors, with about 1,000 new jobs in each by 2030.
The NZNW Energy Pathways-Clean Fuels analysis showed clean fuels developing later in Oregon than other Northwest states, and while Oregon’s Hydrogen Fuels and Biofuels jobs grow along with the rest of the region, this growth is not projected to offset decreases in the state’s fossil fuel subsector jobs by 2030.
By 2030, all Northwest states experience net job growth in the Buildings sector, ranging from 21%-27% (Figure 4). Employment increases across all Buildings subsectors contribute to this growth as energy efficiency and building electrification and decarbonization efforts ramp up.
Buildings job growth in Washington and Oregon is mostly in Commercial HVAC, followed by Residential Shell. By 2030, the Buildings sector employs more people in Washington than any other sector in the state. Idaho and Montana experience employment growth that is more evenly distributed among the subsectors, with the Residential Shell subsector supporting more jobs than Commercial HVAC. The disparity between states is due to differences in each state’s building stocks.
In this analysis, Transportation refers to on-road transportation only, therefore the transition is largely about switching from gas-powered internal combustion engines and conventional fueling stations to electric vehicles and charging station infrastructure. By 2030, Transportation employment decreases by approximately 1% in both Oregon and Montana and increases by approximately 2% in both Idaho and Washington (Figure 5).
Changes in Transportation sector employment reflect the complexity of the vehicle stock transition: there is projected job growth when large numbers of both internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles and electric vehicles are on the road, but projected job decline as demand for conventional fueling stations decreases and electric vehicles (which require less maintenance than ICE vehicles) take over.
In the long term (2050), this analysis shows the region’s Transportation sector declining by nearly 16%, largely due to lost Conventional Fueling Station jobs. To learn more about the complexity of this transition and what it might mean for Conventional Fueling Station and future Charging Station workers, check out our blog on the subject.
The NZNW Workforce State Analysis offers regional stakeholders—energy workers, workforce developers, policymakers, clean energy businesses, advocates—insight into how employment in the four Northwest states might shift over time if the region were on the path to net-zero emissions by 2050 to inform future investment and workforce development strategies.
Achieving net-zero emissions by 2050 in the Northwest will not be possible at the scale and pace that the climate crisis requires without significantly investing in growing a clean energy workforce. Understanding how demand for energy employment might shift on the path to net-zero can guide strategies and investments to ensure an equitable and just clean energy transition. Effort should be made to help workers upskill and obtain quality, family-sustaining clean energy jobs, as well as ensure that displaced workers have the opportunity to retool.
For a deeper dive into this study, please see the key findings, complete results, technical reports, and data for each state on the NZNW Workforce State Analysis webpage. You can also check out materials from our webinar and explore interactive figures that present sector findings on the regional and state levels on the NZNW website.
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