This is the third in a series of five blogs breaking down the strategies proposed in SCALE 2030: Clean Buildings Transition Framework for Washington. Previous blogs were about the Performance as Resource Ecosystem and Clean Energy Regions. Stay tuned for future blogs covering Strategic Transition Funding and Coordinated Planning.

SCALE 2030 is a CETI and 2050 Institute project that aims to shift Washington toward a systemic approach to building decarbonization. It puts forward five strategies as part of a framework to decarbonize the building sector at the pace required to achieve our 2050 net-zero emission limit.

Role of Rapid Market Transformation

The SCALE 2030 framework involves increasing both the supply of and the demand for key clean buildings technologies. The demand side is addressed with the Performance as a Resource (PAR) ecosystem, which advocates for policies and programs to transition buildings to operate efficiently and flexibly.

On the supply side, we propose Rapid Market Transformation (Rapid MT), which identifies the technologies required to transition the building sector and implements strategies to ensure that Washington state building owners and tenants can access these technologies easily at competitive prices.

Modeling shows that replacing fossil fuel and inefficient equipment with efficient, electrified alternatives when equipment is retired is the most cost-effective way to reduce building sector emissions. To transition the entire building stock by 2050, nearly all equipment replacements need to be zero-emission by 2030, which requires a major shift in the market in the next five years (see Figure 1).

Rapid Market Transformation Overview

Key technologies for clean buildings include heat pumps for space and water heating, rooftop solar, batteries, electrical panels, and digital control systems. To increase adoption of these solutions, Rapid MT strategies aim to reduce production and installation costs, drive innovation and supply of key technologies, and improve access for consumers.

Specific Rapid MT strategies could include bulk buy programs that allow consumers to access heating equipment or energy storage at a discounted price; competitions that foster innovation such as New York’s heat pump prize; or advanced market commitments for key technologies. As more units of key technologies are produced and adopted, efficiencies of scale can further advance Rapid MT goals.

Investing in the affordability and accessibility of key technologies is critical to support building owners and occupants in complying with clean buildings policies. By investing in market solutions that make zero-emission equipment the most affordable and natural choice for building owners and occupants, Rapid MT could offer a way to multiply the impact of public funding beyond what can be achieved through direct incentives and programs.

Rapid MT aims to accomplish the following goals by 2030 to scale the clean buildings transition in Washington:

• Zero-emission, efficient appliances are cost-competitive with fossil fuel alternatives
• Zero-emission, efficient appliances, distributed energy resources, and other clean buildings solutions are reliably available and in stock across Washington
• Consumers are aware of and able to access clean buildings technologies and services for their buildings
• Service providers and installers have the skills and availability to meet demand for clean buildings services, equipment, and appliances
• The clean buildings sector supports employment and economic growth in Washington, creating momentum and pathways for people to pursue clean buildings careers

While Rapid MT builds on the success of longstanding market transformation in the Northwest, it differs from traditional market transformation in the following ways:

• Aligns market transformation efforts and timelines with Washington’s statutory target of net-zero emissions by 2050
• Expands from a focus on energy efficiency to achieving emissions reductions more broadly
• Works in tandem with aggressive codes and standards to drive and support market adaptation on an accelerated schedule
• Supports market adaptation for the most strategic, lowest-cost equipment and solutions whether they are emerging technologies or already available on the market

Awareness and Access

Cost is not the only barrier to clean building technology adoption. People in both residential and commercial buildings often make decisions about replacing space and water heating appliances in emergency situations after an equipment failure. To grow the market share of zero-emission appliances, it is essential to make these appliances the easy choice in urgent and non-urgent situations.

Ideally, consumers would be familiar with clean appliance options ahead of time; distributors and installers would have equipment in stock; and knowledgeable installers would have the skills to advise customers and complete a high-quality installation. These conditions could also drive higher adoption rates of distributed energy resources such as onsite solar or storage.

A Rapid MT strategy can support awareness and access through consumer education campaigns in the commercial and residential sectors, incentivizing distributors and installers to stock equipment, and investing in contractor training for key technologies. Washington can look to other states for ideas. For example, California’s Heat Pump Blueprint includes strategies such as streamlined permitting and incentives to encourage contractors to offer heat pumps and a statewide heat pump marketing campaign that includes a dedicated “Heat Pump Week.”  

Clean Buildings, Jobs, and Growth

A focused Rapid MT effort for the clean buildings transition is also an opportunity to support long-term economic development and job growth. By pursuing lasting growth in the market for clean buildings equipment and services, Rapid MT can deliver economic benefits that extend beyond the timeframe of a limited incentive program.

Washington has already set the stage to ensure that clean buildings bring economic benefit to the state’s residents. For example, Washington requires that family-wage job creation be prioritized in implementing the Clean Energy Transformation Act; the Clean Energy Technology Workforce Advisory Committee was created to anticipate and respond to workforce needs; and the draft Comprehensive Climate Action Plan includes a strategy dedicated to developing Washington’s workforce for a clean buildings future.

Initiatives beyond Washington’s borders also offer ideas to maximize equitable economic growth through clean buildings. The Residential Buildings Multistate Action Plan, recently published by the Northeast States for Coordinated Air Use Management (NESCUAM), identifies strategies such as supporting small businesses focused on energy efficiency and zero-emission upgrades; growing the workforce and enhancing job quality by expanding apprenticeship and training programs; and creating contractor networks that make it easier for customers to find service providers.

Implementing Rapid Market Transformation in Washington

Washington recently joined a multistate agreement led by NESCUAM that sets specific goals for heat pumps to comprise 65% of residential heating, air conditioning, and water equipment sales by 2030 and 90% by 2040. The agreement also encourages coordinated action and learning from other states, which can help identify successful strategies for Washington.

As part of designing the SCALE 2030 Clean Buildings Transition Roadmap, we will identify specific actions that actors in Washington can prioritize between now and 2030 to implement Rapid MT. To do so, we will work with an Advisory Group of building sector experts to develop and compile ideas that could address Washington’s specific challenges and opportunities.

If you want to receive updates from CETI straight to your inbox, subscribe here.