Net-Zero Northwest provides new analysis, data on how Idaho, Montana, Oregon, and Washington could achieve net-zero emissions by 2050

SEATTLE - The Clean Energy Transition Institute (CETI) today released Net-Zero Northwest Energy Pathways and Health Impacts, a comprehensive economic and technical analysis that outlines pathways to achieve net-zero emissions in Idaho, Montana, Oregon, and Washington by 2050. The assessment provides invaluable modeling and data for policymakers, utilities, government agencies, advocates, and businesses advancing the transition to a clean energy future in the Northwest.

The study models a 2050 target in line with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change direction on maintaining a 1.5-degree Celsius temperature rise. The results focus on critical actions that must be made before 2030 to emissions reduction, electrification and transmission, clean fuels development, and decarbonizing buildings and transportation to achieve a 2050 net-zero goal.

“These next few years will be a true test, not just for the Pacific Northwest but for the entire country, to see if we can get on the path to rapidly reduce emissions,” said Eileen V. Quigley, CETI’s Executive Director. “With a relatively clean electric grid, bold climate policies, and federal funding incentivizing clean energy, our region could be a proving ground for how to achieve net-zero.”    

CETI’s past four-state decarbonization analysis, released in 2019, provided technical analysis for clean energy plans and policies in Montana, Oregon, and Washington, which has some of the boldest climate initiatives in the U.S. With Net-Zero Northwest, CETI partnered with Evolved Energy Research to produce a new energy pathways analysis that incorporates the significant investment the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) will funnel into clean energy projects.

Key study findings include:

• ‍Electricity: End-use electricity demand will more than double from 2021 to 2050, with new electrified transportation responsible for more than half of the increase. However, economy-wide energy demand would decrease by 30% due to efficiency gains that come primarily from fuel switching to electricity.
• ‍Transmission: Expanding transmission across the Northwest will lower total decarbonization costs and create more options for how to meet net-zero goals. Planning must start now to overcome the challenges of building interstate transmission.
• ‍Clean fuels: IRA incentives will make hydrogen production economically feasible by 2030, particularly in Montana. By 2050, liquid fuels can be fully decarbonized with both captured carbon and hydrogen becoming valuable commodities used to produce clean hydrocarbon fuels.
• ‍Transportation: Moving away from internal combustion engine vehicles is key to lowering energy costs during the transition to net-zero. By moving toward electric vehicles, the Northwest avoids the costs and production of clean liquid fuels for internal combustion engine cars.
• ‍Buildings: Electric appliances are more energy efficient than gas-powered equivalents. Keeping gas as a fuel source to heat and cool buildings will result in higher energy demand and will drive up decarbonization costs across the economy by 2050.
• ‍Emissions: The Northwest can get close to zero CO₂ emissions by 2050, but it is not possible with current technologies to reduce non-CO₂ emissions to zero without significantly changing agriculture and industrial processes. Achieving targets in states with large agriculture sectors will require clean fuels and carbon sequestration to help offset remaining emissions.
• ‍Public health: Decarbonizing removes air pollutants, which could mean significant health benefits in the Northwest, including avoiding as many as 40 deaths per million people by 2050. Fewer deaths, fewer days of lost work, and fewer hospital admissions would also save as much as $8.9 billion across the region per year in 2050.

As part of the energy pathways analysis, the Net-Zero Northwest study modeled 22 “what-if” scenarios that modified a core case’s assumptions. Those scenarios probe key questions that regional stakeholders are grappling with as they work to reduce regional carbon emissions, such as:

• What if transmission cannot be expanded in the Northwest?
• What is the impact of stalled transportation electrification?
• What if onshore wind development in the region is limited?
• What role can distributed energy resources and demand response play in decarbonization?

“The Net-Zero Northwest analysis brings real analytical firepower to the vital project of economy-wide decarbonization,” said KC Golden, a Washington State member of the Northwest Power and Conservation Council, which develops energy plans for the Pacific Northwest. “By breaking down traditional silos and approaching the challenge systemically, this work opens up new, better pathways to climate solutions at scale.”

“The Net-Zero Northwest study provides an incredibly useful tool for evaluating the path to decarbonization in the region,” said Nicole Hughes, Executive Director of Renewable Northwest. “The analysis emphasizes the importance of expanding the transmission system to support increased electrification and the new renewable generation that will be needed to meet clean energy standards.”

“The Net-Zero Northwest analysis will be invaluable for Oregon as we develop our state energy strategy over the next year,” said Alan Zelenka, Assistant Director for Planning and Innovation, Oregon Department of Energy. “The scenarios and modeling provide the starting point we need to accelerate Oregon’s clean energy transition and will help us assess the trade-offs we’ll need to make.”

When examining the Net-Zero Northwest pathways, CETI encourages stakeholders to consider the need to address equity as the clean energy transition unfolds. This must include mitigating the potential costs that consumers will likely face when moving to cleaner alternatives, as well as carefully siting renewable energy and transmission infrastructure in ways that respect local community concerns.

“While developing clean energy can grow local economies and provide local health benefits due to improved air quality, the transition will not be equitable without careful planning and authentic engagement with communities that have historically been left out of decision-making and whose lands could be impacted by clean energy development,” said Quigley.

Later this year, CETI will release the Net-Zero Northwest Workforce Analysis, which will examine jobs that will be created or changed if the path to net-zero emissions were to unfold as the energy pathways analysis suggests. Visit https://www.nznw.org to review the full findings of Net-Zero Northwest.

About the Clean Energy Transition Institute:

The Clean Energy Transition Institute is an independent, nonprofit research organization that provides rigorous analysis, frames trade-offs, and convenes stakeholders to accelerate an equitable clean energy transition across the Northwest.

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